Economic Thought and Practice, , 2026.
Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.17818/EMIP/2026/19
UNCERTAINTY SHOCKS AND MACROECONOMIC SPILLOVERS IN EMERGING EUROPE: EUROZONE INSIDERS VS. OUTSIDERS
Emilija Beker Pucar
orcid.org/0000-0002-6369-3225
; University of Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia, Faculty of Economics in Subotica
*
Olgica Glavaški
; University of Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia, Faculty of Economics in Subotica
* Corresponding author.
Abstract
This paper examines how uncertainty shocks influence inflation, the current account, and real activity in emerging EU economies under different monetary regimes. Using quarterly data from 2004Q1 to 2024Q4, it compares countries with monetary autonomy (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) to Eurozone members (Slovenia, Slovakia, and Estonia). Country-level SVAR models are estimated, and dynamic effects are traced using orthogonalised impulse responses, with additional checks based on an extended sample (Romania, Latvia) and panel VAR results. The findings indicate a regime-specific trade-off. In economies with monetary autonomy, uncertainty shocks result in quicker and stronger inflation responses, consistent with exchange rate pass-through. Eurozone members display more limited inflation effects but experience deeper and more persistent declines in output, along with larger current account improvements driven mainly by weaker demand and reduced imports.
Keywords
European uncertainty index; monetary autonomy; EZ enlargement; macroeconomic adjustments; uncertainty shocks; structural VAR
Hrčak ID:
346505
URI
Publication date:
24.4.2026.
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