Original scientific paper
THE REDUCTION OF UNCERTAINTY IN MAKING DECISIONS BY EVALUATING THE MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS PERFORMANCE IN ROMANIA
MIHAELA BRATU
Abstract
The evaluation of macroeocnomic forecasts
performance does not include only the
calculating of some statistical measures,
rather controversial in literature, like root
mean squares error or absolute mean error. In
theory and economic practice, three directions have
been traced regarding the evaluation of forecasts
performance: the analyse of accuracy, bias and
efficiency. Using the forecasted values on medium run
of inflation rate and unemplyment rate through the
period from 2004-2010 in Romania, we get a better degree
of accuracy and a lower efficiency for forecasts made by
National Commission of Forecasting comparing to those
based of Dobrescu model used by Institute of Economic
Forecasting. Following the international tendency, the
forecasts are, in all cases, biased because of difficulties in
precise anticipation of shocks which affect the economy.
Forecasts performance is indestructible related by their
uncertainty, RMSE, the measure of evaluating the
accuracy being used in building forecast intervals based
on historical errors. For forecasted values of inflation rate
published by National Bank of Romania we propose a
new way of building forecast interval in order to take into
account the economic shocks.
Keywords
forecasts; accuracy; bias; efficiency; forecasts intervals
Hrčak ID:
86635
URI
Publication date:
15.6.2012.
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