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Original scientific paper

Exploring the Relationship between Consumer Credits and Interest Rates in Turkey: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis

Burcu Kiran


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Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between consumer credits and interest rates in Turkey based on the fractional cointegration approach by using daily observations over the period from 4 January 2002 to 24 December 2010. First, we ignore the possible structural breaks in the series and perform the Geweke and Porter-Hudak (GPH) test on the residuals for fractional cointegration. Second, we determine the structural breaks “endogenously” by using a minimum LM unit root test and reapply the GPH test on the new residuals obtained from a cointegrating regression estimated with the detrended series. The results indicate that consumer credits and interest rates are fractionally cointegrated in both cases, with and without structural breaks.

Keywords

consumer credits; interest rates; fractional cointegration; structural breaks; Turkey

Hrčak ID:

74145

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/74145

Publication date:

17.11.2011.

Article data in other languages: croatian

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