Original scientific paper

Recent climate trends and future scenarios along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

Mohamed Shaltout ; University of Alexandria, Faculty of Science, Department of Oceanography, Alexandria, Egypt
Ahmed El Gindy ; University of Alexandria, Faculty of Science, Department of Oceanography, Alexandria, Egypt
Anders Omstedt ; University of gothenburg, Department of Earth Sciences, göteborg, Sweden

Abstract

This paper analyses the present Egyptian Mediterranean coast (EMC) climate and the response of its climate variables to global changes. First, the accuracy of the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010) for the studied region is examined by comparing these data with available independent observations. Second, the qualities of six global climate models (gCMs), together with the ensemble mean of multiple model realisations of the A1B scenario, are examined by comparing these with the ERA-Interim dataset. Finally, gCM simulations are used to describe the uncertainties in future climate change along the EMC.
The results indicate that the observations are in good agreement with the ERA-Interim data. The data for the EMC, 1979–2000, display a significant positive trend for 2-m air temperature together with significant negative trends for total precipitation and sea level pressure. The climate model that best de¬scribes the present EMC climate is the CgCM 3.1 model, which is used to describe the future climate of the study area. The CgCM 3.1 model indicates that the EMC area will experience significant warming, substantial droughts, and a weak decrease in sea level pressure in the end of the current century.

Keywords

Mediterranean Sea; Egypt; air temperature; precipitation; sea level pressure; climate; trend analysis; climatic models

Hrčak ID:

105849

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/105849

Publication date:

30.6.2013.

Article data in other languages: croatian

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