Review article
Possible development of the Croatian energy sector by 2050 in the view of carbon dioxide emission reductions
Goran Granić
; Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar
Abstract
The paper analyses a key question: Is it possible to achieve growth of the Croatia's energy sector in conditions when CO2 emissions must be reduced by 80 percent by the year 2050, and what might be the consequences of this process? In considering this issue, the paper deals not only with expected increase of costs, but it also takes into account desirable effects on the development of technology, science and economic growth including creation of higher value added.
For the purpose of energy sector development projections by 2050 the authors used two models in modelling energy systems:
MAED – Model for Analysis of Energy Demand1,
MESSAGE – Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts2. MESSAGE applies the results obtained by MAED model as input data and assumptions.
Possible developments in the sectors such as industry, households, services and transport were modelled by using simulations as a tool to evaluate their performance in terms of implementing measures for reduction of CO2 emissions for that individual sector in line with the targets set by the European Union.
In 2050 the average cost of electricity generation is expected to increase by almost 140 percent compared to 2015.
Reduction of CO2 emissions by 80 percent in total energy sector in Croatia, and 95 percent in electricity sector, is possible from technical and technological point of view, however with high costs and significant changes in the entire energy sector, which must be preceded by advancements in scientific and industrial development.
Keywords
energy sector; Croatia; development by 2050; electricity sector; CO2 emission reduction
Hrčak ID:
118434
URI
Publication date:
14.2.2014.
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