Sociology and Space, No. 79-81, 1983.
Original scientific paper
Changes in the total Population of the S. R. Croatia
Ana Lončar
Abstract
In the period 1961—1981 the population
of the S. R. Croatia increased
by 441,773 persons, or by
10.6%, which means that the average
annual rate of increase was
0.50%. A study of population
changes in that period singles
out three groups of communities
of communes. In the first group
are communities of communes
whose population has decreased.
These are Bjelovar, Gospić, Karlovac
and Zagreb. Besides a population
decrease, they also have a
very low natural population increase
and a negative balance of
migration. In the second group
are communities of communes
whose population has increased,
but the increase is lower than the
population increase of the republic.
These are Osijek, Sisak and
Varaždin. In the third group are
communities of communes whose
population increase is greater
than that of the republic average.
These are Rijeka, Split and the
community of municipal communes
of Zagreb.
The natural population increase
in the S. R. Croatia is low because
of the low birth rate and the
relatively high death rate (which
is the result af an unfavourable
age structure). The average rate
of natural increase fell from 7.3%
in the period 1961—1965, to 4.6%
in the period 1976—1980.
The age structure in the period
1961 — 1981 also changed. The
number of inhabitants below
the age of 19 decreased absolutely
and relatively, and the middle-
-aged (between 20 and 59) and the
aged (over 60) population increased
relatively and absolutely. If
we study the relationships between large age groups we can forecast the prospect for renewing
older age groups by younger age
groups. The relationship between
the group below the age of 19 and
the group between 20—39 shows
that renewal is not ensured (in
1981 coefficient was 962). The
forecasts for renewal of the older
middle-age group (40—59) by the
younger middle-age grop (20—39)
are somewhat more favourable
(in 1981 the coefficient was 1096).
These changes in the natural increase
and in the age structure of
the population indicate the continuing
decrease of the birth rate
and increase of the death rate.
We can thus expect the natural
population increase to continue
to decrease, and a still more unfavourable
age structure.
Keywords
Hrčak ID:
119653
URI
Publication date:
8.9.1983.
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