Professional paper
ORIGIN OF RISK ASSESSMENT
Dejan Škanata
; Enconet International, Zagreb
Abstract
This text, in its wider range, represents somewhat more liberal elaboration of a part of the study made by Covello and Mumpower, 1985. The author of this paper has isolated and shortly described those happenings of their fairly extensive work that he considers extremely important for the discussion of chronology of the development of risk assessment. The text has been structured in a different way from the original, and some of Paustenbach's critical commentaries on their work have also been taken into account. Analyzing additional literature the author of this article has given his small contribution to the research of this subject in chapters Games of chance and gambling, Insurance and Risks and Technological Development, Industrial Accidents and Risks. Namely, the author of the article thinks that, in the chronological survey of the development of risk assessment, greater significance should be given to games of chance and their influence on later development of the theory of quantitative risk assessment than it was pointed out by Covello and Mumpower. Also, analyzing the development of insurance Covello and Mumpower omit to register the influence that the concept of insurance introduced by a certain shipowner from Geneve had on the development of quantitative risk assessment, which was reported by Fullwood and Hall. Finally, it seems obvious that the introduction and application of the quantitative risk assessment as a completely structured method was dominantly influenced by big disasters in nuclear and other industrial plants, mainly due to consequences they left behind, as well as to explicitly negative publicity they brought about in the media.
Keywords
consequences; gambling; industrial accidents; probability; risk assessment
Hrčak ID:
141548
URI
Publication date:
15.9.1997.
Visits: 1.284 *