Original scientific paper
EXPECTATION FOR THE FIRST DECADES OF THE 21st CENTURY
Ivan Cifrić
; Faculty of Philosphy, Zagreb
Abstract
An empirical research was carried out among students of the University of Zagreb (1997; N = 685) including four undergraduate study programmes – agronomy, medicine, sociology, and machine and naval engineering.
The informants had to evaluate the feasibility of 16 particular “visions” of the next 30 years. The results are as follows: (1) some 25 per cent of all informats are not sure what to expect from the future; (2) over 70 per cent of the informants believe that only a few “visions” will come true – such as increased environmental pollution, greater men's dependence on technology and more significant underdeveloped countries' dependence on the developed; (3) less than 30 per cent of the informants expect enough food produced by genetic engineering, the creation of a “superman” and a decrease of human creativity.
The author invents the “Script 2025" in which both pessimism and optimism can be identified concerning the expectations from the future.
By a multivariant analysis four factors have been identified: deterioration of health and environmental conditions (F1); a higher quality of life caused by the advance of science (F2); eugenics (F3), and developmental distance.
By analysis of variance carried out on the four undergraduate programmes and four behavioural types (the egocentric, the untilitarian, the biocentric, the holist) the following differences have been identified: (1) significant differences between informants enrolled in different undergraduate programmes concerning only the first two factors (F1) and (F2). More than others it is the agronomy undergraduates who are expecting a deterioration of health and environmental conditions and a better quality of life caused by the advance of science. Significant differences can be observed between the four behavioural types as related to the first (F1) and forth (F4) factor. The “holist” tends significantly to the first (F1), and the “utilitarian” to the forth (F4) factor.
Keywords
21st century; development; environment; genetic engineering; visions of the future
Hrčak ID:
141655
URI
Publication date:
15.9.1998.
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