Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.7305/automatika.2016.01.880
Predicting influential mobile-subscriber churners using low-level user features
Uroš Droftina
; Telekom Slovenije, d.d., Cigaletova 15, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
Mitja Štular
; Telekom Slovenije, d.d., Cigaletova 15, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
Andrej Košir
; Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Ljubljana, Tržaška 25, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
Abstract
In the last years, customer churn prediction has been very high on the agenda of telecommunications service providers. Among customers predicted as churners, highly influential customers deserve special attention, since their churns can also trigger churns of their peers. The aim of this study is to find good predictors of churn influence in a mobile service network. To this end, a procedure for determining the weak ground truth on churn influence is presented and used to determine the churn influence of prepaid customers. The determined scores are used to identify good churn-influence predictors among 74 candidate features. The identified predictors are finally used to build a churn-influence-prediction model. The results show that considerably better churn prediction results can be achieved using the proposed model together with the classical churn-prediction-model than by using the classical churn-prediction model alone. Moreover, the successfully predicted churners by the combined approach also have a greater number of churn followers. A successful retention of the predicted churners could greatly affect churn reduction since it could also prevent the churns of these followers.
Keywords
Churn prediction; User influence; Social network; Weak ground truth; Churn-influence model
Hrčak ID:
154041
URI
Publication date:
19.2.2016.
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