Hrvatske vode, Vol. 24 No. 95, 2016.
Original scientific paper
Coincidence of flood waves in the Sava and Drina Rivers
Stevan Prohaska
; Jaroslav Černi Institute for the Development of Water Resources, Belgrade, Serbia
Aleksandra Ilić
; Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Niš, Niš, Serbia
Abstract
The paper presents a theoretical basis for defining the coincidence of flood waves in the zone of significant interaction between the mainstem and its tributary. It shows the mathematical bases and procedures for defining the lines of same probabilities of occurrence and the lines of probabilities of exceedance for two random variables. In the case of a complex river system, limited by two inlet profiles (on the mainstem and its tributary) and one outlet profile (on the mainstem), without a significant influence of inflow from the intercatchment, the relevant constellations (combinations) of maximum annual discharges and their corresponding (synchronous) discharge values on other inlet/outlet profiles were determined. The following practical uses of the defined dependences of flood wave coincidences were determined: a) Definition of design discharges for economically optimal calculation of water table lines in the zone of interaction between the mainstem and its tributary; b) Definition of design floods of different probabilities of occurrence on the mainstem section downstream of the tributary mouth, if only the discharges on two inlet profiles (on the mainstem and its tributary) are known; c) Assessment of the statistical significance of historical and forecast floods. The application results of this procedure of the calculation of flood coincidences are presented for the section of the Sava River from the gauging station Županja to the gauging station Sremska Mitrovica, with the inclusion of the Lower Drina River from the gauging station Radalj to its confluence with the Sava River. The calculation results mentioned under points a), b) and c) for these Sava and Drina sections are used for numerical and graphic illustration of the paper.
Keywords
flood coincidence; same probability of occurrence; exceedance probability; statistical significance of floods
Hrčak ID:
156289
URI
Publication date:
28.3.2016.
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