Original scientific paper

https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1174389

IMF lending arrangements in emerging and developing countries – participation and prediction

Ramona Orăștean orcid.org/0000-0001-9881-9636
Silvia Mărginean orcid.org/0000-0003-1265-4506
Claudiu Opreana

Abstract

The literature on determinants of International Monetary Fund (IMF)
interventions in emerging and developing countries shows that the
IMF’s decisions are determined by political and economic causes.
This article empirically investigates economic factors, showing that
a country’s probability to sign an IMF arrangement can be predicted
by looking at a core group of macroeconomic variables. Using
discriminant analysis we develop a score function that allows us
to predict a country’s future participation in IMF programmes. The
study covers 153 emerging and developing countries, over more than
30 years (1980–2011) and 654 agreements, for both non-concessional and concessional loans. The proposed tools are simple, consistent and relevant and they can be used both to monitor an IMF country and its economic development in real time and to forecast future demand for IMF aid.

Keywords

IMF lending arrangements; emerging and developing countries; participation; prediction

Hrčak ID:

171734

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/171734

Publication date:

22.12.2016.

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