Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2017.1305782
Use of the method of the stochastic trend for NAIRU estimation in the Czech Republic and Slovakia at the macro- and meso-levels
Emilie Jašová
Božena Kadeřábková
Klára Čermáková
Abstract
The article provides an analysis of the development of NAIRU and
the economic cycle in the labour market at the level of the economy
and in selected sectors in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The
analysis focuses on estimation of the time-varying NAIRU with the
use of the method of the stochastic trend. The difference between
the estimated NAIRU values and the real unemployment rates is used
for characterisation of the economic cycle in the labour market. The
estimated phases of the cycle are compared with the development
of the basic real economy indicators. Unstable periods on the labour
market in the economy and in selected sectors of the two countries
are localised. The identified leading indicators are used for prediction
of the development in the following period.
Keywords
Phillips curve; NAIRU; stochastic trend; unemployment gap
Hrčak ID:
180815
URI
Publication date:
1.12.2017.
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