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Beware of What You Wish For, Because You Might Get It! (A Note on the Occasion of the First Anniversary of the Brexit Referendum)

Sandra Švaljek ; The Institute of Economics, Zagreb


Full text: english pdf 256 Kb

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Full text: croatian pdf 507 Kb

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Abstract

A little over a year after the referendum at which the majority of UK citizens voted to leave the EU, it is the right time to sum up the causes of Brexit, as well as its short-term and possible long-term economic consequences. The outturn of the referendum has created negative expectations and increased uncertainty. Therefore, the UK's growth rate has already started to decelerate even though the relationship between the UK and EU has not yet changed at all. Depending on the outcome of negotiations with the EU, leaving the Union might lead to a reduction of UK’s GDP by 2 to 8 percent by 2030. The implications of Brexit on the remaining EU countries will differ—on average, their GDP might fall by 0.5 to 1.5 percent. Thanks to only minor economic connections with the UK, Croatia might avoid a significant negative effect of Brexit. Despite that, Brexit deserves to be carefully observed, since it provides us with the opportunity to learn from it about the possible economic effects of irresponsible and populist politics.

Keywords

Brexit; economic growth; United Kingdom; European Union

Hrčak ID:

187715

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/187715

Publication date:

18.10.2017.

Article data in other languages: croatian

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