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Original scientific paper

The tourism and travel industry and its effect on the Great Recession: A multilevel survival analysis

Zdravko Šergo ; Institute of Agriculture and Tourism Poreč, Croatia
Jasmina Gržinić ; Faculty of Economics and Tourism, Pula, Croatia
Mirela Sučić Čevra ; Tumlare Corporation Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia

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succumb to more risk in a recession? With the shift from manufacturing-based
economies in the developing world toward service-based industries, including
tourism, a reliance on the tourism industry may erode economic stability in
tourism-based countries, making them more prone to fall into a recession due to
higher risks. In this paper, we wish to emphasise the positive impact of tourism
specialisation indices in the international economy on the probability occurrence
of a so-called Great Recession. This article uses a multilevel survival analysis and
a generalised linear mixed-effect (GLMM) structure modelling to investigate the
impact of tourism development on the probability of recession frequency (risk in
terms of months of duration and severity), by using data collected from 2007 to
2013 from 71 countries around the world, to see if recession frequency is positively
correlated with the various indicators of tourism development. Two GLMMs were
fitted to this data: logistic regression and count regression with a Poisson
distribution. Results for both regressions show considerable evidence that the ratio
between the number of overnight stays and the resident population and travel
services as a percentage of commercial service exports positively impacts the
probability for a country (from our sample) to experience a recession event and
can make recession worse in terms of severity, measured in months.


Recession, duration, risk, tourism, multilevel survival analysis, GLMM

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Article data in other languages: croatian

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