Preliminary communication
https://doi.org/10.31823/d.26.4.6
Depopulation and aging in Eastern Croatia
Dražen Živić
orcid.org/0000-0002-5293-568X
; Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar – Local center Vukovar
Abstract
The subject of this study is the total population trends and contemporary changes in the biological structure of the population of Eastern Croatia. The purpose of the study is, based on the results of the last two censuses (2001 and 2011), the analysis of vital statistics for the period 2001-2016, and the projections of the future population trends (by 2030, and 2051) to determine, analyze and interpret basic aggregate indicators indicating trends in the general, natural and mechanical movement of the population of Eastern Croatia and their interactive link with the process of demographic aging. The aim of the paper is to establish and describe the reached level of total depopulation and demographic aging of Eastern Croatia. Given that general and partial depopulation processes are in strong correlation with the formation of the biological structure of the population, it is clear that together they form far-reaching regressive factors of population development, as well as socio-economic development of Eastern Croatia. If the current unfavorable demographic trends persist, especially in bio-reproduction, it is reasonable to expect that Eastern Croatia by the middle of the 21st century will naturally and mechanically lose one third of the population registered in 2011. The expected further decline in the number of inhabitants will not be linear, and we expect a greater imbalance between certain large (functional) age contingents, especially in the relation: young – old population.
Keywords
Eastern Croatia; demographic development: depopulation; demographic aging
Hrčak ID:
214076
URI
Publication date:
28.12.2018.
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