Original scientific paper

https://doi.org/10.17559/TV-20181122070039

Two-Way Mutual-Structure-Based Public Opinion Communication System: An Analysis with Simulation

Weidong Huang orcid.org/0000-0003-2735-5437 ; Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, No. 66, XinmaoFanma Road, Central Gate Street, Gulou District, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China, 210000
Yang Cui ; Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, No. 66, XinmaoFanma Road, Central Gate Street, Gulou District, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China, 210000
Xiang Xiao ; Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, No. 66, XinmaoFanma Road, Central Gate Street, Gulou District, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China, 210000

Abstract

Mastering the evolutionary trend of an event paradox is significant for regulating event development. The powerful social synergy from aggregating public opinion can shape the development process and direction of an event and place tremendous pressure on society managers. Understanding the evolution of public opinion can help relevant departments better supervise and manage public opinion. This paper analyzes the generation path and propagation mode of public opinion through quantitative analysis and an interdisciplinary quotation of infectious disease models to establish a public opinion model based on a bidirectional mutual structure model of the paradox-generating path. The multi-agent simulation platform Netlogo is used to simulate a constructed public opinion evolution model, and the law of public opinion evolution under the resonance path is analyzed. Taking Stephen Hawking's death in 2018 as a sample case, simulation results are verified through data collection and collation; additionally, the law of the evolution of public opinion in the two-way mutual structure model is further summarized. This model can be compared with the evolution law of public opinion events. Such evolution can be roughly divided into three stages (diffusion, peak, and regression), which comprehensively explain the evolution of Weibo. The characteristics and behavioral mechanisms of each behavioral subject reflect the true event evolution. The model also provides a method for accurately judging event classification attributes and calculation formulas. This model can be applied in various public opinion supervision departments and provide a reference for social impacts following public opinion development.

Keywords

infectious disease model; Netlogo simulation; public opinion; public opinion evolution; two-way mutual structure

Hrčak ID:

217144

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/217144

Publication date:

16.2.2019.

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