Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.3935/rsp.v26i1.1561
Measuring Sustainability of the “Pay as You Go” Public Pension System in the Republic of Macedonia
Miroljub Shukarov
orcid.org/0000-0003-2448-2086
; South East European University
Ivana Velkovska
orcid.org/0000-0002-2114-2142
; Center for Economic Analysis Skopje
Marjan Nikolov
; Center for Economic Analysis
Abstract
The analysis of the demographical data indicates that currently the main challenge for the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go public pension system in Macedonia is not the aging population. The revenues from contributions as a percentage of total pension system’s revenues are decreasing due to low labour activity, low wages and slow job-creation. The larger deficits of the fund call for an analysis and possible reform action. The paper provides simulations under proposed assumptions until 2030. In our simulations, the pension fund starts to generate surpluses after 2025-26. They are higher or lower depending on the policy to be chosen. The sensitivity of the pension system is the highest to the GDP growth, which points to the need to find mechanisms to accelerate growth.
Keywords
pay-as-you-go pension system; aging population; sustainability; employment
Hrčak ID:
219420
URI
Publication date:
17.4.2019.
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