Original scientific paper

https://doi.org/10.18047/poljo.25.2.7

Simulation of main agrarian policy indicators within beef meat market in The Republic of Croatia by AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model

David Kranjac ; Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Agrobiotechnical Sciences Osijek, Vladimira Preloga 1, 31000 Osijek, Croatia
Krunoslav Zmaić ; Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Agrobiotechnical Sciences Osijek, Vladimira Preloga 1, 31000 Osijek, Croatia
Ivan Štefanić ; Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Agrobiotechnical Sciences Osijek, Vladimira Preloga 1, 31000 Osijek, Croatia
Sanja Jelić Milković ; Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Agrobiotechnical Sciences Osijek, Vladimira Preloga 1, 31000 Osijek, Croatia
Nikola Raguž ; Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Agrobiotechnical Sciences Osijek, Vladimira Preloga 1, 31000 Osijek, Croatia
Emil Erjavec ; University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Jamnikarjeva ulica 101, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

Abstract

The mid-term simulation of the main agrarian policy indicators development of Croatian beef meat market by 2030 was made by the AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber State MODelling) partial equilibrium model. Model results until the end of the simulated period, assuming the continuation of the existing measures and instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy, confirm the development of negative trends within the beef market, observed through the review of historical data. By the end of the simulated period, it is expected that the total number of cattle will be reduced by 8.63%, and beef meat production by 24.46%, while domestic consumption will be growing by 25.91%. Negative production indicators with growing domestic consumption could cause the growth of beef meat imports by 82.68%, with a self-sufficiency level of 49% by 2030. Since Croatia’s accession to the European Union, producers’ price of beef meat has been stable, and stable development, with a slight downward trend, is expected until the end of the simulated period.

Keywords

simulation; partial equilibrium model; AGMEMOD; beef meat market; Croatia

Hrčak ID:

229479

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/229479

Publication date:

5.12.2019.

Article data in other languages: croatian

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