Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1699437
A regression discontinuity evaluation of the policy effects of environmental regulations
Juying Zeng
María Guijarro
Agustín Carrilero-Castillo
Abstract
A regression discontinuity design was applied to measure the
short- and long-term policy effects of the air quality improvement
plan implemented for the G20 Hangzhou summit. The analysis
considered the effects across 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang,
China. Five meteorological indicators (temperature, humidity,
pressure, wind speed and rainfall) were employed as control variables.
Using these control variables, the short- and long-term policy
effects were measured in terms of the changes in the air
quality index (AQI) and pollutant concentrations (PM2.5, PM10,
CO, SO2, NO2 and O3) 1 year and 2.5 years after policy implementation.
The results reveal significant short- and long-term effects
of the environmental plan on air quality improvement in cities in
Zhejiang. The policy effects of the plan for the G20 summit were
stronger in Hangzhou than in other prefecture-level cities. In
Hangzhou, the short-term policy effects were stronger than the
long-term effects, especially in terms of the decreasing AQI,
PM2.5 and PM10 levels. Similar regulations should continue to be
implemented for lasting improvements in regional air quality
Keywords
Environmental regulation; regression discontinuity design; policy effect; air quality index; pollutant concentration level
Hrčak ID:
254673
URI
Publication date:
9.2.2021.
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