Original scientific paper

https://doi.org/10.21278/TOF.462028121

Estimation of Average Monthly Total Solar Radiation on a Horizontal Surface for the Central Anatolia Region: Example of Sivas Province

Bekir Yelmen orcid.org/0000-0001-7655-530X ; Department of Environmental Protection Control, Adana Metropolitan Municipality, Adana, Turkey
Mutlu Tarık Çakır orcid.org/0000-0002-0107-594X ; Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sivas University of Science and Technology, Sivas, Turkey
Çagrı Ün ; Department of Aut. Engineering, Çukurova University, Adana, Turkey

Abstract

In this study, in order to determine the solar energy potential in the Central Anatolia Region, the total solar radiation on the horizontal plane was evaluated with trigonometric functions (Models). During 1999-2019 in the region, monthly average values of total daily solar radiation coming to the horizontal plane was calculated with six different models. It was also compared with the values measured in the same time interval. Model 1 (Angstrom-Prescott-Page), Model 2 (Soler, Rietveld), Model 3 (Kılıc and Ozturk), Model 4 (Akinoglu and Ecevit), Model 5 (Bahel) and Model 6 (Louche) were used in the calculations. Regression coefficients were calculated for these models and the coefficients were used in the estimation of total solar radiation (SR). From these models, Model 2 and Model 3 regression values for many provinces in the Central Anatolia Region (CAR) are higher than other models. Model 3 (Kılıc and Ozturk) with a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.986 showed the best predictive performance among the models examined. This model was compared to other models and the mean error of deviation (MBE) was found to be -0.060 and the root mean square error (RMSE) 0.707. However, considering the total SR, annual sunshine duration (SD) and average temperature, Model 4 (Akinoglu and Ecevit) showed the best predictive performance which indicates that it will be a suitable model for Sivas Province.

Keywords

solar radiation; Sivas; sunshine duration; solar energy; regression

Hrčak ID:

279203

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/279203

Publication date:

15.6.2022.

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