Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1875858
Tourism-led economic growth in Montenegro and Slovenia
Sergej Gričar
orcid.org/0000-0001-7704-5483
Štefan Bojnec
orcid.org/0000-0002-1270-6372
Vesna Karadžić
Tamara Backović Vulić
Abstract
This article expounds one of the first attempts to explore the relationship between tourist arrivals and gross domestic product
(GDP) in Montenegro and Slovenia. Both countries are newcomers
on the tourist destinations map, derived from what was previously Yugoslav republics existing as a singular emerging tourist
destination. Data vector for empirical analysis covers quarterly
change of GDP at constant prices and monthly data for tourist
arrivals during January 2010 – December 2019 as an endogenous
variable. The cointegration is used in the modelling structure. The
empirical results confirm research hypothesis of uni-causal relationship of economic growth-led domestic tourism growth in
Montenegro and one cointegrated vector. No cointegration vector
was confirmed for Slovenia. These results are important for
research, policymakers and tourism practice. Considering that,
tourism and economic growth have a different distribution of
causalities during the expansion period with a boost of tourist
arrivals and vice versa during the economic downturn
Keywords
Gross domestic product (GDP); Montenegro; Slovenia; time series causalities; tourism-led economic growth; tourist arrivals
Hrčak ID:
301663
URI
Publication date:
31.12.2021.
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