Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1890176
Perceived macroeconomic uncertainty and export: evidence from cross-country data
Jia Liao
Le Luo
Xiangyun Xu
Aichun Wang
Abstract
The Perceived Macroeconomic Uncertainty (PMU) is seen as
unpredictable volatility about the future economic development
at aggregate level. While prior research explains how uncertainty
(in general) influences international trade flows, research on the
role of PMU in international trade flows is scarce. This article
attempts to address this lack of understanding. Utilizing the gravity model and multicountry level data, our results show that: (1)
the level of PMU in both importing countries and exporting countries has a significant negative impact on exports, but the effect
of PMU of importing countries is larger than that of PMU of
exporting countries; (2) PMU in importing countries has a trade
diversion effect, suggesting that exporters are more willing to
export to countries with relatively lower level of PMU; (3) the
negative effects of PMU on trade have declined after the 2008
Great Financial Crisis, which may be related to the relative stability of the PMU index since the Great Financial Crisis and the
increased concern of traders about other factors, such as trade
policy uncertainty and Sino-US economic conflicts. Our research
enriches prior findings that examine the effects of uncertainty on
trade flows and carries important policy implications
Keywords
Perceived macroeconomic uncertainty; trade diversion effect; gravity model
Hrčak ID:
301829
URI
Publication date:
31.3.2023.
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