Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1925573
Spatio-Temporal influence of Non-Pharmaceutical interventions policies on pandemic dynamics and the economy: the case of COVID-19
Teddy Lazebnik
Labib Shami
Svetlana Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky
Abstract
We have developed an extended mathematical graph-based spatial-temporal SIR model, allowing a multidimensional analysis of
the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the pandemic
spread, while assessing the economic losses caused by it. By
incorporating into the model dynamics that are a consequence of
the interrelationship between the pandemic and the economic
crisis, such as job separation not as a result of workers’ morbidity,
analysis were enriched. Controlling the spread of the pandemic
and preventing outbreaks have been investigated using two NPIs:
the duration of working and school days and lockdown to varying
degrees among the adult and children populations. Based on the
proposed model and data from the Israeli economy, allowing 7.5
working hours alongside 4.5 school hours would maximise output
and prevent an outbreak, while minimising the death toll (0.48%
of the population). Alternatively, an 89% lockdown among children and a 63% lockdown among adults will minimise the death
toll (0.21%) while maximising output and preventing outbreaks.
Keywords
State space models; mathematical and simulation modelling; crisis management; government policy; public health
Hrčak ID:
302240
URI
Publication date:
31.3.2023.
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