Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1941180
Does the COVID-19 pandemic affect the tourism industry in China? Evidence from extreme quantiles approach
Yun Song
Peng Zhao
Hsu-Ling Chang
Ummara Razi
Marius Sorin Dinca
Abstract
The tourism industry carries great significance in the economic
development of any country. It has been observed that the
COVID-19 crisis has affected global travel and tourism more than
any other sector globally as well as in China. The travel restrictions, home isolation, and quarantine orders have given massive
damage to China’s once thriving tourism industry. Despite this
phenomenal impact, the existing literature has a dearth of empirical studies related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on
the tourism industry. This study attempts to reflect a thorough
picture of the current scenario and the crisis effects under different intensities reflected through quantiles of Covid-19 related
deaths. The study has utilized the QARDL model and the Wald
test on the daily time series data of COVID-19 intensity, the real
effective exchange rate, oil prices, and the tourism development
index from January 1, 2020, to March 15, 2021. The outcomes indicate that COVID-19 related deaths have a negative, but significant
impact on China’s tourism in the long run and short run. The oil
prices also show a negative influence on tourism in the long run,
but there is no significant impact of the oil prices on tourism in
the short run. At the same time, the increase in the real effective
exchange rates tends to support tourism in the long run, but does
not influence tourism development in the short run.
Keywords
China; COVID-19 pandemic; exchange rate; oil prices; QARDL; tourism
Hrčak ID:
302274
URI
Publication date:
31.3.2023.
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