Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.2478/zireb-2023-0002
Predicting Financial Crises and Signal Indicators in G7 Countries
Hilal Alpdoğan
; Sakarya University of Applied Science, Sakarya, Turkey.
Mustafa Akal
; Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey.
Ali Kabasakal
; Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey.
Şakir Görmüş
; Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Abstract
This study aims to detect financial crises and their signal indicators in G7 countries from 1990 to 2016. For this purpose, fourteen leading economic indicators supported by the economic literature were examined for signaling and the 24-month crisis window before the beginning of a crisis. Among them, successful crisis estimators were determined by the noise signal ratio. The identified crisis estimators provide essential information about the dynamics of economies and the channels of the crisis affecting them. Our findings may help policymakers determine adverse policies against crisis, avoid significant losses, and stabilize the world economy and national economies.
Keywords
Financial Crises; Signal Approach; KLR Approach; G7 Countries
Hrčak ID:
304662
URI
Publication date:
26.6.2023.
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