Original scientific paper

https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2108099

Spillover impact of the U.S. monetary policy shock on China's economy: capital flow channel

Suhua Tian
Dihai Wang
Li Wang

Abstract

This study builds an open economy theoretical model with financial
frictions to analyse the spillover impact of the U.S. monetary
policy shock on China’s economy through capital flow channel.
Bayesian technique is employed to estimate the TVP-VAR model
and obtain three main results. First, the increase in the U.S. nominal
interest rate causes the decline in China’s capital inflow,
which has a negative spillover impact on China’s economy and
leads to the decline in China’s real output. Second, this negative
spillover impact on China’s economy has no structural time-varying
characteristics. Third, the pass-through effect from international
capital flow to China’s real output is greater than that of
international capital flow itself

Keywords

U.S. monetary policy shock; international capital flow; China’s real output; spillover impact

Hrčak ID:

306642

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/306642

Publication date:

30.4.2023.

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