Original scientific paper

Exit Polls: International and Croatian Experience

Vesna LAMZA POSAVEC ; Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar; Zagreb
Dragan BAGIĆ ; Faculty of Philosophy, Zagreb

Abstract

The paper consists of two main parts. The first comprises a
short presentation of the development of exit polls worldwide
as well as a description of the most common methodological
approaches and prognostic validity of this type of research.
The second part analyses the validity of exit polls conducted
to date in Croatia and evaluates them from the point of view
of statistical prediction of election results as well as predicting
the political outcome of the election. It is concluded that the
results of previous exit polls, although relatively satisfactory in
a statistical sense, mostly contained certain biases which, in
close election races, resulted in a mistaken prognosis of the
order of the leading electoral competitors. In addition, in all
the research regarding election situations, the exit poll data
were inadequately interpreted in public presentations
because in projections of election results the important
methodological circumstances that could influence their
prognostic value were not taken into consideration.

Keywords

exit polls; public opinion research; research methodology; Croatian elections

Hrčak ID:

29431

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/29431

Publication date:

31.10.2008.

Article data in other languages: croatian german

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