Original scientific paper
Case Study: Analysis of the Puls Agency Exit Poll Methodology
Dragan BAGIĆ
orcid.org/0000-0002-0371-838X
; Faculty of Philosophy; Zagreb
Vesna LAMZA POSAVEC
; Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar; Zagreb
Abstract
In an attempt to improve exit polls in Croatia, a detailed
analysis was carried out of the exit poll methodology used by
the agency Puls in the last few elections. The results of the
analysis showed that the main biases of the applied
methodological approaches were related to the coverage of
potential respondents, mostly due to survey non-response,
biased sampling procedures and, consequently to inefficient
statistical correction procedures aimed at reducing such
research biases. In addition to a more cautious interpretation
and public presentation of results, it would be best in the
future to improve the existing and develop some new
methodological solutions, especially predictive models of
election outcomes in which the exit polls data would be one
of its constituent elements.
Keywords
exit polls; public opinion research; survey methodology
Hrčak ID:
29432
URI
Publication date:
31.10.2008.
Visits: 3.577 *