Original scientific paper
Strategic Foresight as a Prerequisite for a Timely Reaction
Andreja Tomašević
Davor Ćutić
orcid.org/0000-0003-1385-1923
; Dr. Franjo Tuđman Defense and Security University
Abstract
The state of uncertainty in the strategic environment has been a challenge throughout human history. Today’s intelligence analysts must be not only creative, but also
able to anticipate a new threat before it actually materializes. Without awareness of
the current situation in the strategic environment and the trends that shape it, it is
almost impossible to predict and develop relevant future scenarios. If we add to that
today’s picture of a very complex and dynamic world, strategic foresight is becoming an increasingly important tool for organizations and individuals in adapting to
changes, anticipating risks and taking advantage of opportunities.
The aim of this paper is to provide insight into the processes and analytics of strategic
forecasting“as a key concept and as a tool for making effective and timely decisions.
Strategic foresight is fundamentally qualitative, but also quantitative in nature and
includes not only the military dimension, but also others such as political, diplomatic,
economic, social and others that are often crucial in relation to the military, but this
paper will deal with mostly only in the military dimension.
Keywords
strategic foresight, forecast, analysis, risk assesment, uncertainty, defence
Hrčak ID:
322576
URI
Publication date:
30.9.2024.
Visits: 337 *