Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.3935/rsp.v13i2.429
Active Insured Persons and Retired Persons in Croatia- Expected Trends up to 2031
Anđelko Akrap
; Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu
Abstract
This paper presents the projections of the overall number of inhabitants for the period up to 2031. Based on the set hypotheses on future trends of fertility, mortality and external migrations, the projections have been calculated in three variants. In all three analysed variants, the hypotheses regarding mortality are identical. Fertility hypotheses have been made in the variants of decreasing and increasing fertility. The hypothesis on mild annual positive balance of migrations has been set in one of the variants. Since the projected period in question is relatively short, different fertility hypotheses have a relatively low influence on the population trend in the work contingent. Only with the assumed positive migration balance would a part of decrease in the population growth in the work contingent up to 2031 be compensated. The central part of this paper presents a projection of the trends in the number of retired persons and active insured persons in Croatia up to 2031. Based on the age structure of retired persons in 2001 and the set hypotheses on the future influx of pensioners, the trend of the number of retired persons has been projected up to 2031. It has to be emphasised that the Croatian Institute for Pension Insurance does not dispose of the complete registry of all potential pension users who reside outside Croatia (displaced Serbs, persons who have left abroad to work temporarily...) In such circumstances, a potential «immigration» into the projected number of retired persons in Croatia has been estimated. In accordance with the expected changes in the economic structure of the population in European countries up to 2031, the hypothesis has been set in three variants of the rate of the economic activity of the work contingent. Thus the projected number of potential active insured persons in Croatia was obtained, as well as the ratio between them and the number of retired persons.
Keywords
population projections; active insured persons; retired persons; demographic trends; inflow into population of retired persons; rates of economic activity of the work contingent; number of active insured persons per one retired person
Hrčak ID:
30263
URI
Publication date:
13.6.2006.
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