Original scientific paper

Forecasting severe rainfall in the equatorial Southeast Asia

Mastura Mahmud ; Earth Observation Centre, Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar ; Department of Meteorology, The Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida, USA

Abstract

Accurate prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall events in the equatorial region has always been a challenge to weather
forecasters. In this paper, forecast of a severe precipitation event that occurred over the eastern central coast of Peninsular Malaysia was attempted using the state-of-the-art Florida State University (FSU) Global and Regional Spectral Models. The sensitivity of parameterized convection in these models on precipitation forecast skill is studied using two different parameterization schemes for cumulus convection (the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme and the modified Kuo scheme). Low precipitation threshold of rainfall less than 2 mm day–1 was successfully predicted by both versions of the FSU model. However, the convection schemes lacked skill in predicting the correct placement of the area and amount for the
high precipitation threshold greater than 40 mm day–1. Further evaluation of the predictive skills showed that the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme was a consistently better predictor of rainfall due to its low bias and lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) compared to the modified Kuo parameterization scheme.

Keywords

monsoon rainfall; equatorial Southeast Asia; global and regional spectral models; rainfall prediction

Hrčak ID:

31015

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/31015

Publication date:

31.12.2008.

Article data in other languages: croatian

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