Review article
https://doi.org/10.46672/po-mest.29.1-2.7
Interaction between crime and tourist arrivals in the coastal counties of Croatia
Željko Cvrtila
Abstract
Tourism is one of the most important sectors of the Croatian economy, and security is one of the key preconditions for its development and sustainability. Crime, as both a legal and social phenomenon, represents a source of actual and perceived insecurity for tourists and may influence the attractiveness of a destination. In highly tourism-dependent countries such as Croatia, it is therefore important to examine whether the seasonal concentration of tourists is associated with changes in crime patterns, especially in coastal destinations. This paper analyses the relationship between tourist arrivals and crime trends in the seven Croatian coastal counties during the period 2016–2024. The study is based on monthly data on reported criminal offences and selected misdemeanours obtained from the Ministry of the Interior, as well as monthly data on tourist arrivals from official tourism statistics. Since more than 92% of all tourist arrivals in Croatia are realised in coastal counties, the main analysis is focused on these areas. In addition to total crime, the paper separately examines offences against property, offences against life and limb, drug-related criminal offences and misdemeanours, and misdemeanours against public order and peace. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to determine the strength of the relationship between tourist arrivals and crime. The results show a strong positive correlation between total crime and tourist arrivals in all coastal counties, with county-level coefficients ranging from 0.868 to 0.975, while the overall correlation for all coastal counties is 0.974. The findings also confirm a clear seasonal pattern: both tourist arrivals and crime reach their highest levels during the summer months, especially from June to September, and their lowest levels during winter, particularly in December, January, and February. This indicates that the increase in tourist arrivals is accompanied by an increase in reported crimes, although crime does not increase proportionally to the increase in the number of tourists. The analysis of specific crime categories also shows strong positive correlations with tourist arrivals. Particularly high correlations were found for property crime, drug-related offences and misdemeanours, offences against life and limb, and misdemeanours against public order and peace. These findings are consistent with previous research and with criminological assumptions that tourist concentrations, crowding, reduced vigilance, nightlife, and increased alcohol and drug consumption create greater opportunities for certain forms of criminal behaviour.
A comparison with continental counties further confirms the specificity of coastal tourist destinations. While coastal counties show consistently high positive correlations between tourism and crime, continental counties generally show weak or negative correlations, indicating that crime there is more strongly related to the resident population than to tourist movements. The paper concludes that tourism is an important factor in shaping the seasonal dynamics of crime in Croatian coastal counties and highlights the need for timely planning of police resources, targeted preventive activities, and locally adapted security strategies in order to preserve the high level of safety necessary for the sustainable development of tourism in Croatia.
Keywords
crime; tourism; seasonality of crime; criminal offences; counties; Croatia
Hrčak ID:
348956
URI
Publication date:
5.5.2026.
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