Original scientific paper
AN ATTEMPT AT IDENTIFYING THE GROUP OF IILIKELY VOTERS" IN PRE-ELECTION POLLS
Vesna Lamza-Posavec
; Institute for Applied Social Research, Zagreb
Abstract
In this paper the author discusses some methodological problems
concerning pre-election polls that have occured as a result
of spontaneous selection of potential examinees, on the one
hand, and incomplete election turnout of voters, on the other
hand. With regard to the latter, the author analyzes some procedures
of detecting "likely vote rs" used by American researchers
for defining the basic group in order to select samples for preelection
polis and to weight results obtained on a sample of the
whole electorate. Since this methodological issue, due to an evidently
decreasing trend of election turnout, is also becoming increasingly
significant in Croatia, the paper deals with some of the
possible criteria for identifying the group of "likely voters" in specific
social circumstances in Croatia. The possible influence of implementation
of these criteria on the predictive validity of research
results is also examined. Based on the findings of the conducted
analyses, it has been concluded that - due to a probable connection
between poll and election abstention and erratic behavior
of potential voters for specific parties - the application of predictors
used by American researchers for participation in the elections
in Croatian circumstances does not, in effect, influence the
overall validity of pre-election polis.
Keywords
Hrčak ID:
32219
URI
Publication date:
1.1.1996.
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