Preliminary communication
New metrics of primary energy prices
Zlatko Hill
Abstract
In terms of sharp drop of international oil prices in the second half of 2008 after heading skyward in the first half of 2008 following continual growth since 2005, while at the same time certain parity among energy prices was disrupted, the author of this article tried to investigate key factors that influenced oil and gas industry and to answer the question what would be a »fair» price of crude oil and what would be the correlation between crude oil and natural gas prices in international market. The economic crises that spread around the world in the second half of 2008, partly as a result of over-consumption, induced many changes in world economy, including changes in price relations.
During the research of key trends in oil industry, the author perceived a number of discrepancies among notions, judgements, even ideas, from peak oil concept - despite growing prices and news about new reserves, to declarative, albeit not confirmed, discordance between crude oil and natural gas prices.
In the conclusion of this paper, based on comparison of different indicators, it is quoted: "Determination of boundaries within which certain phenomenon can move, can be done only through complex analyses of all relevant factors that impact that phenomenon". Preparation of this study was challenged by frequently superfluous and even unprofessional projections of possible future movements of oil and gas prices.
Keywords
economic liberalism; prices; primary energy; crude oil; natural gas; oil reserves
Hrčak ID:
41420
URI
Publication date:
31.8.2009.
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