Original scientific paper

Demographic Future of Gorski Kotar

Ivan Lajić ; Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb, Croatia
Sanja Klempić Bogadi orcid.org/0000-0003-4536-0627 ; Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract

Demographic development of Gorski Kotar has largely been a reflection of unfavourable natural-geographic and socio-economic circumstances, which had impelled emigration of the population from this region already by the end of the 19th century, and this process has not stopped till nowadays. The decrease in the total number of inhabitants has been strongly influenced by decades of emigration. Since the 1960s, negative natural movements have significantly contributed to total depopulation. Based on the analysis of negative demographic processes in the Gorski Kotar region, several kinds of demographic projections have been made for the period until 2021. According to these projections, further negative demographic tendencies and additional diminution of the Gorski Kotar population, as well as a negative birth-rate and the erosion of all demographic and economic structures are expected. Population ageing will be a fundamental determinant of future demographic development of the observed area, because every third inhabitant will be more than 60 years old and this points to potential problems in the social and economic development of the region.

Keywords

Gorski Kotar; depopulation; ageing, emigration; demographic projections

Hrčak ID:

60865

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/60865

Publication date:

30.8.2010.

Article data in other languages: croatian french

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