Original scientific paper

GAPS IN TOXIC INDUSTRIAL CHEMICAL (TIC) MODEL SYSTEMS

Steven Hanna ; Hanna Consultants, Kennebunkport, Maine, USA
Joseph Chang ; Homeland Security Institute, Arlington, Virginia, USA

Abstract

There are concerns regarding the hazards to the public due to the releases of toxic industrial chemicals (TICs) to the
atmosphere as a result of accidents or intentional acts. For recent chlorine railcar accidents, where 30 to 60 tons of pressurized
liquefied chlorine were released in rural areas, the number of casualties estimated by several widely-used model systems far
exceeded the number of casualties observed, raising concerns by decision makers about the accuracy of the model systems. The
comprehensive model system consists of a scenario definition, a source emission model, a transport and dispersion model, an
exposure model, and a health risk model. A few of the deficiencies or gaps in the model system are summarized in this paper,
including 1) incomplete knowledge of the scenario, 2) uncertainties in the state-of-the-art of source emission models, 3) inadequate
transport and dispersion models, 4) limitations of knowledge concerning the population and their movement, and 5) biases and
uncertainties in health risk models.

Keywords

Hazardous gas dispersion; dense gas dispersion; Toxic industrial chemical dispersion; chlorine releases from railcars; dry deposition; chemical removal of chlorine

Hrčak ID:

64075

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/64075

Publication date:

12.12.2008.

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