Preliminary communication
Modelling Dependence of Climate System on Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion
Sadik BEKTESHI
; Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina, Prishtina, Kosovo
Skender KABASHI
; Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina, Prishtina, Kosovo
Ivo ŠLAUS
; Ruđer Bošković Institute, Zagreb, Croatia
Aleksander ZIDANSEK
; Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Skender AHMETAJ
; Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina, Prishtina, Kosovo
Abstract
We have developed a model for investigating the dependence of the climate
system on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This model
was constructed in the STELLA program, which makes use of Systems
Dynamics Modelling as a methodology. It consists of two main sectors:
climate sector and carbon dioxide emissions sector, and studies interactions
between climate system and carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil, natural
gas. Together, the interacting climate and carbon dioxide emissions provide
approximate predictions of both Earth and atmosphere temperature as a function
of time. Our simple model predicts a gradual increase in atmosphere and Earth
temperatures. The increase of mean temperatures for the time interval of 100
years is about 5 K, which is in accordance with the data obtained from IPCC
where the range of projected global temperature change, for the same time
interval, for all scenarios is from 1.4 K to 5.8 K
Keywords
Carbon dioxide emissions; Climate change; Climate model
Hrčak ID:
64464
URI
Publication date:
31.8.2010.
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