Original scientific paper

SENSITIVITY TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS – NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE MAP IOP5 AND MAP IOP15

Stjepan Ivatek-Šahdan ; Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia
Branka Ivančan-Picek ; Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract

Numerical simulations of the precipitation system during the MAP IOP5 and the extreme Bura wind case during the MAP IOP15 have been performed with ALADIN/HR (hydrostatic) limited area model. Three experiments were performed. For the reference experiment (ARPE) ARPEGE operational analysis from 1999 were used. The other two experiments (ECAR and ECMW) have the same upper-air fields, from the 4D-Var ECMWF MAP reanalysis. In the experiment ECAR the surface fields were taken from ARPEGE operational surface analysis from 1999. In the ECMW experiment, initial surface fields are taken partly from ECMWF MAP reanalysis and partly from the ARPEGE climatology file for appropriate months. Results of the numerical experiments show the higher sensitivity to the initial conditions for the MAP IOP5 heavy precipitation case. The different initial and boundary conditions for the extreme Bura wind case during the MAP IOP15 have not given significantly different wind field in the corresponding numerical experiments.

Keywords

ALADIN/HR; MAP; IOP5; heavy precipitation; IOP15; Bura; sensitivity to initial conditions

Hrčak ID:

64547

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/64547

Publication date:

15.12.2005.

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