Original scientific paper
PREDICTABILITY OF A STRONG PRECIPITATION EVENT; A CASE STUDY AND AN INVESTIGATION OF MODEL SENSITIVITY
Mark Žagar
; Environmental Agency of Slovenia, Vojkova lb, SI-1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Kay Sušelj
; Environmental Agency of Slovenia, Vojkova lb, SI-1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Janez Polajnar
; Environmental Agency of Slovenia, Vojkova lb, SI-1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Abstract
For a convective event, simulated rainfall intensity is compared to the observations at a minute-time-scale. Temporal intermittency and peak intensities are found to be similar to the rain-gauge data, when the model is forced with analysis at the lateral boundaries. Predictability of the same event, estimated on the basis of several simulations starting on different initial large-scale analysis and with forecast lateral boundary conditions, is found to be very low, meaning that accurate predictions of this and similar events at 36 — 48 hour ranges are unlikely.
Keywords
Strong precipitation; convection; COAMPS™; floods
Hrčak ID:
64609
URI
Publication date:
15.12.2005.
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