Original scientific paper
APPLICATION OF CLUSTER ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO THE VERIFICATION OF QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
Stefano Serafin
; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Trento Via Mesiano 77, I-38050 Trento, Italy
Alessio Bertò
; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Trento Via Mesiano 77, I-38050 Trento, Italy
Dino Zardi
; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Trento Via Mesiano 77, I-38050 Trento, Italy
Abstract
The results of the verification of precipitation forecasts are highly affected by the distribution of rain gauges, and depend mostly on the model performance in areas where the gauges network is denser. For model verification purposes, in the present work the whole set of available measurements is divided into a series of
geographical subsets, each of them displaying a similar precipitation pattern. Cluster analysis is adopted as an objective method to create groups of rain gauges displaying interrelated measurements. Clusters display a well defined spatial structure, related to the interaction of air masses with orographic obstacles. Verification scores
computed in each cluster help in detecting the spatial variation of a model's performance.
Keywords
precipitation forecast; verification; cluster analysis
Hrčak ID:
64621
URI
Publication date:
15.12.2005.
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