Original scientific paper
SETUP AND TEST OF A SIMPLE MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF LATE FROST EVENTS OVER COMPLEX TERRAIN
Stefano Dalla Nora
; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering – University of Trento, Italy Via Mesiano 77 - 38050 Trento, Institute of San Michele, Italy Via Edmondo Mach 1 - 38010 San Michele all'Adige
Massimiliano de Franceschi
; Institute of San Michele, Italy Via Edmondo Mach 1 - 38010 San Michele all'Adige
Dino Zardi
; Institute of San Michele, Italy Via Edmondo Mach 1 - 38010 San Michele all'Adige
Abstract
A simple algorithm for prediction of spring frost is presented along with results form its application to reproduce
observed temperature minima at 24 meteorological stations in Trentino (Italy). The method is based on the model proposed by Reuter (1947, 1951) where the cooling process is assumed proportional to the square root of time after sunset by means of
a decay coefficient. Data recorded during the periods March-May 2003 and 2004 have been used to determine an optimal value of the decay coefficient embedded in the algorithm. The value for this coefficient is obtained through a multiple linear regression which involves meteorological variables as wind speed, air temperature and relative humidity. The performance of the method is satisfactory in reproducing the time evolution of the process. For most of the stations the method provide a satisfactory tool for issuing a frost alert within 1.5°C of tolerance.
Keywords
Frost prediction; nocturnal stable boundary layer (NBL); Adige River Valley; Non Valley
Hrčak ID:
64625
URI
Publication date:
15.12.2005.
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