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PROJECTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE NUMBER OF DEMENTIA SUFFERERS: INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCY NOT SUFFICIENTLY CONSIDERED?

Johannes Wancata ; Clinical Division of Social Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Marion Freidl ; Clinical Division of Social Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Annemarie Unger ; Clinical Division of Social Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Rebecca Jahn ; Clinical Division of Social Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Nathalie Soulier ; Clinical Division of Social Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Matthäus Fellinger ; Clinical Division of Social Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Regine Daniel ; Clinical Division of Social Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria

Sažetak

Background: Several authors pointed out that in the next
decades dementia will affect a considerably increasing
number of the elderly. The question was raised if lifeexpectancy
was projected to conservative, resulting in
revisions with higher life-expectancy and larger numbers of
the oldest population. The present paper analyses the
influence of such revisions on the future numbers of dementia
sufferers in Austria.
Subjects and methods: For this purpose we used metaanalyses
of epidemiological studies and the population
projections for the period until 2050 of the Austrian Bureau of
Statistics as well as of the United Nations Population Division
of the year 2001 as well of the year 2005.
Results: Using the extrapolations of the Austrian Bureau
of Statistics of the year 1999 as well as of the United Nations
Population Division of the year 2001, the number of dementia
cases in Austria in the year 2050 will rise to about 233
thousands. According to the four years later performed
extrapolations of the United Nations Population Division of
the year 2005, dementia cases in Austria will raise to about
262 thousands in the year 2050.
Conclusions: In the next decades, the number of persons
suffering from dementia will rise considerably. Increasing lifeexpectancy
will result in markedly higher numbers of persons
with dementia than estimated from earlier population
projections. Nevertheless, this is the first analysis of future
dementia cases based on projections from two different dates,
but using the same source. We must conclude that the
dramatically increasing number of dementia cases requires
comprehensive planning of the health and social care system.

Ključne riječi

dementia – epidemiology – projections - life expectancy

Hrčak ID:

162556

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/162556

Datum izdavanja:

15.12.2015.

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