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Original scientific paper

PRE-ELECTIONAL DECREASE OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Damjan Miličević
Nada Pleli ; Faculty of Economic & Business, Department of Mathematics, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Fulltext: english, pdf (190 KB) pages 334-344 downloads: 423* cite
APA 6th Edition
Miličević, D. & Pleli, N. (2013). PRE-ELECTIONAL DECREASE OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. Croatian Operational Research Review, 4 (1), 334-344. Retrieved from https://hrcak.srce.hr/97409
MLA 8th Edition
Miličević, Damjan and Nada Pleli. "PRE-ELECTIONAL DECREASE OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE." Croatian Operational Research Review, vol. 4, no. 1, 2013, pp. 334-344. https://hrcak.srce.hr/97409. Accessed 12 Jul. 2020.
Chicago 17th Edition
Miličević, Damjan and Nada Pleli. "PRE-ELECTIONAL DECREASE OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE." Croatian Operational Research Review 4, no. 1 (2013): 334-344. https://hrcak.srce.hr/97409
Harvard
Miličević, D., and Pleli, N. (2013). 'PRE-ELECTIONAL DECREASE OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE', Croatian Operational Research Review, 4(1), pp. 334-344. Available at: https://hrcak.srce.hr/97409 (Accessed 12 July 2020)
Vancouver
Miličević D, Pleli N. PRE-ELECTIONAL DECREASE OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. Croatian Operational Research Review [Internet]. 2013 [cited 2020 July 12];4(1):334-344. Available from: https://hrcak.srce.hr/97409
IEEE
D. Miličević and N. Pleli, "PRE-ELECTIONAL DECREASE OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE", Croatian Operational Research Review, vol.4, no. 1, pp. 334-344, 2013. [Online]. Available: https://hrcak.srce.hr/97409. [Accessed: 12 July 2020]

Abstracts
Opportunistic business cycle models test whether the current government has the ability to reduce unemployment in pre-election period.
First opportunistic business cycle models tested regressions using unemployment rate as the dependent variable, and for explanatory variables used unemployment rate in the previous two periods and
political dummy variable defined as unity several quarters prior to election and zero elsewhere. Such models did not find evidence of opportunistic cycle for unemployment.
Haynes and Stone in their model estimated regressions using unemployment as the dependent variable and sixteen dummy variables as explanatory variables (one for each quarter in the Presidential
electoral term). Results showed that unemployment has roughly sinusoidal sixteen quarter cycle, where unemployment troughs on average the quarter of the election.
Mentioned models are tested with data for the United States for the period from 1948 to 2011 where regressions results coincide with models mentioned in the article.

Keywords
Unemployment; Opportunistic business cycle; Political economy

Hrčak ID: 97409

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/97409

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