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https://doi.org/10.1515/zireb-2015-0008

Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model

Scott W. Hegerty ; Northeastern Illinois University, Department of Economics, Chicago, USA

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (236 KB) str. 31-44 preuzimanja: 266* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
W. Hegerty, S. (2015). Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, 18 (2), 31-44. https://doi.org/10.1515/zireb-2015-0008
MLA 8th Edition
W. Hegerty, Scott. "Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model." Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, vol. 18, br. 2, 2015, str. 31-44. https://doi.org/10.1515/zireb-2015-0008. Citirano 02.04.2020.
Chicago 17th Edition
W. Hegerty, Scott. "Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model." Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business 18, br. 2 (2015): 31-44. https://doi.org/10.1515/zireb-2015-0008
Harvard
W. Hegerty, S. (2015). 'Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model', Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, 18(2), str. 31-44. https://doi.org/10.1515/zireb-2015-0008
Vancouver
W. Hegerty S. Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business [Internet]. 2015 [pristupljeno 02.04.2020.];18(2):31-44. https://doi.org/10.1515/zireb-2015-0008
IEEE
S. W. Hegerty, "Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model", Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, vol.18, br. 2, str. 31-44, 2015. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.1515/zireb-2015-0008

Sažetak
Recent commodity price declines have added to worldwide macroeconomic risk, which has had serious effects on both commodity exporters and manufacturers that use oil and raw materials. These effects have been keenly felt in Central and Eastern Europe—particularly in Russia, but also in European Union member states. This study tests for spillovers among commodity-price and macroeconomic volatility by applying a VAR(1)-MGARCH model to monthly time series for eight CEE countries. Overall, we find that oil prices do indeed have effects throughout the region, as do spillovers among exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and output, but that they differ from country to country—particularly when different degrees of transition and integration are considered. While oil prices have a limited impact on the currencies
of Russia and Ukraine, they do make a much larger contribution to the two countries’ macroeconomic volatility than do spillovers among the other macroeconomic variables.

Ključne riječi
Oil Prices; Volatility; Multivariate GARCH; Spillovers; Central/Eastern Europe

Hrčak ID: 148332

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/148332

Posjeta: 437 *