Izvorni znanstveni članak
Assessing Terrorist Threats For Energy Infrastructure By Combining Historical Data And Expert Judgments
Davor Šinka
orcid.org/0000-0001-7305-8666
; ENCONET, Zagreb, Croatia
Slavko Krajcar
orcid.org/0000-0001-9871-4658
; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Zagreb
Tomislav Bajs
; ENCONET, Zagreb, Croatia
Sažetak
Energy systems are relatively attractive targets for terrorist attacks and should be adequately protected. The quantitative risk analysis (QRA), with the threat assessment as one of its standard components, is considered to be a promising methodological framework for optimizing such protection. This paper presents the results of the research which consisted of two parts. In the first part the statistical analysis of the terrorist attacks towards energy systems was performed. The input data were derived from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Within the analysis relative contributions of the attacks on energy systems to the total number of attacks were determined. Also, it was examined how those contributions are influenced by various factors related to the characteristics of the target, terrorist group and the environment in which the group operates. In the second part of the research the method for the quantitative threat assessment was developed. It is based on the results of the performed statistical analysis (i.e. on historical data) and on expert judgments. The method is applicable to the electricity, gas and oil sectors. The implementation of the Bayesian networks allows for taking the uncertainties into consideration, as well as for easy modifying and updating.
Ključne riječi
threat assessment; terrorism; energy infrastructure; protection; Bayesian networks
Hrčak ID:
170804
URI
Datum izdavanja:
11.4.2016.
Posjeta: 1.146 *