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https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1100842

Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand

Josip Tica
Ivan Kožić

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (575 KB) str. 1046-1062 preuzimanja: 230* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Tica, J. i Kožić, I. (2015). Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand. Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, 28 (1), 1046-1062. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1100842
MLA 8th Edition
Tica, Josip i Ivan Kožić. "Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand." Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, vol. 28, br. 1, 2015, str. 1046-1062. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1100842. Citirano 25.01.2020.
Chicago 17th Edition
Tica, Josip i Ivan Kožić. "Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand." Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja 28, br. 1 (2015): 1046-1062. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1100842
Harvard
Tica, J., i Kožić, I. (2015). 'Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand', Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, 28(1), str. 1046-1062. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1100842
Vancouver
Tica J, Kožić I. Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand. Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja [Internet]. 2015 [pristupljeno 25.01.2020.];28(1):1046-1062. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1100842
IEEE
J. Tica i I. Kožić, "Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand", Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, vol.28, br. 1, str. 1046-1062, 2015. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1100842

Sažetak
The aim of this paper is to present a forecasting model for the overnight stays of foreign tourists in Croatia. Tourism is one of the most important parts of the Croatian economy. It is particularly important in the context of the services sector. Regular and significant surpluses and the consumption of foreign guests are an important
element of budget revenues, especially VAT. The ability to forecast the development of inbound tourism demand in a timely manner is crucial for both business decisions and policy-making. We combine the Granger causality test for identifying leading indicators with a grid search of the weights used to construct a composite indicator. An endogenous grid search for data driven weights was employed to minimise the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the out-of-sample forecast. In total, we carried out 7.7 billion out-of-sample regressions in order to find the optimal combination of leading indicator weights. Results indicate that only four out of the 12
identified leading indicators are relevant in explaining variations in inbound tourism demand. The most important leading indicators are: real GDP and imports in Poland and gross wages in the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

Ključne riječi
tourism demand; forecasting; leading indicators; composite indicator; Granger causality; weights optimisation

Hrčak ID: 171615

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/171615

Posjeta: 308 *