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Testing the Applicability of Perry's Model of "Probable Voters" for Predicting the Election Results for the Zagreb City Assembly in 2001

Vesna LAMZA POSAVEC
Goran MILAS

Puni tekst: hrvatski, pdf (200 KB) str. 431-451 preuzimanja: 247* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
LAMZA POSAVEC, V. i MILAS, G. (2002). PROVJERA PRIMJENJIVOSTI PERRYJEVA MODELA "VJEROJATNIH GLASAČA" U PREDIKCIJI REZULTATA IZBORA ZA GRADSKU SKUPŠTINU ZAGREBA 2001. GODINE. Društvena istraživanja, 11 (2-3 (58-59)), 431-451. Preuzeto s https://hrcak.srce.hr/19696
MLA 8th Edition
LAMZA POSAVEC, Vesna i Goran MILAS. "PROVJERA PRIMJENJIVOSTI PERRYJEVA MODELA "VJEROJATNIH GLASAČA" U PREDIKCIJI REZULTATA IZBORA ZA GRADSKU SKUPŠTINU ZAGREBA 2001. GODINE." Društvena istraživanja, vol. 11, br. 2-3 (58-59), 2002, str. 431-451. https://hrcak.srce.hr/19696. Citirano 20.09.2020.
Chicago 17th Edition
LAMZA POSAVEC, Vesna i Goran MILAS. "PROVJERA PRIMJENJIVOSTI PERRYJEVA MODELA "VJEROJATNIH GLASAČA" U PREDIKCIJI REZULTATA IZBORA ZA GRADSKU SKUPŠTINU ZAGREBA 2001. GODINE." Društvena istraživanja 11, br. 2-3 (58-59) (2002): 431-451. https://hrcak.srce.hr/19696
Harvard
LAMZA POSAVEC, V., i MILAS, G. (2002). 'PROVJERA PRIMJENJIVOSTI PERRYJEVA MODELA "VJEROJATNIH GLASAČA" U PREDIKCIJI REZULTATA IZBORA ZA GRADSKU SKUPŠTINU ZAGREBA 2001. GODINE', Društvena istraživanja, 11(2-3 (58-59)), str. 431-451. Preuzeto s: https://hrcak.srce.hr/19696 (Datum pristupa: 20.09.2020.)
Vancouver
LAMZA POSAVEC V, MILAS G. PROVJERA PRIMJENJIVOSTI PERRYJEVA MODELA "VJEROJATNIH GLASAČA" U PREDIKCIJI REZULTATA IZBORA ZA GRADSKU SKUPŠTINU ZAGREBA 2001. GODINE. Društvena istraživanja [Internet]. 2002 [pristupljeno 20.09.2020.];11(2-3 (58-59)):431-451. Dostupno na: https://hrcak.srce.hr/19696
IEEE
V. LAMZA POSAVEC i G. MILAS, "PROVJERA PRIMJENJIVOSTI PERRYJEVA MODELA "VJEROJATNIH GLASAČA" U PREDIKCIJI REZULTATA IZBORA ZA GRADSKU SKUPŠTINU ZAGREBA 2001. GODINE", Društvena istraživanja, vol.11, br. 2-3 (58-59), str. 431-451, 2002. [Online]. Dostupno na: https://hrcak.srce.hr/19696. [Citirano: 20.09.2020.]

Sažetak
In the results of the validation analysis presented in the article
the applicability of Perry's model of "probable voters" in
Croatian electoral circumstances has been tested, as well as its
possible influence on the predictive validity of pre-electoral
research of public opinion in Croatia. Results of the
comparative field research and telephone opinion polls carried
out on occasion of the 2001 Zagreb City assembly elections
were used in the analysis. In order to define the relative
significance of a specific variable from Perry's model, as a
possible predictor of electoral participation, the first level of
analysis established a factor-structure and the reliability of
included variables for determining the probability of electoral
turn-out. On the second level the authors tried to establish to
what extent a certain variable or group of variables, selected as
significant in the previous analysis, could influence the validity
of research on voting intentions at elections. Based on the latter
it is concluded that in Croatian circumstances the application of
certain elements of Perry's model has a more or less satisfactory
but still limited impact on the validity of pre-electoral research
and that, for Croatian purposes, it should be revised by
introducing some additional variables of electoral behaviour,
first and foremost those that are more situationally connected to
Croatian political and electoral circumstances.

Hrčak ID: 19696

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/19696

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