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https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1174388

Constructing a composite coincident indicator for a post-transition country

Ivana Rašić Bakarić
Marina Tkalec
Maruška Vizek

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (1 MB) str. 434-446 preuzimanja: 316* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Rašić Bakarić, I., Tkalec, M. i Vizek, M. (2016). Constructing a composite coincident indicator for a post-transition country. Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, 29 (1), 434-446. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1174388
MLA 8th Edition
Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, et al. "Constructing a composite coincident indicator for a post-transition country." Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, vol. 29, br. 1, 2016, str. 434-446. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1174388. Citirano 25.02.2021.
Chicago 17th Edition
Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec i Maruška Vizek. "Constructing a composite coincident indicator for a post-transition country." Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja 29, br. 1 (2016): 434-446. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1174388
Harvard
Rašić Bakarić, I., Tkalec, M., i Vizek, M. (2016). 'Constructing a composite coincident indicator for a post-transition country', Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, 29(1), str. 434-446. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1174388
Vancouver
Rašić Bakarić I, Tkalec M, Vizek M. Constructing a composite coincident indicator for a post-transition country. Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja [Internet]. 2016 [pristupljeno 25.02.2021.];29(1):434-446. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1174388
IEEE
I. Rašić Bakarić, M. Tkalec i M. Vizek, "Constructing a composite coincident indicator for a post-transition country", Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, vol.29, br. 1, str. 434-446, 2016. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1174388

Sažetak
The aim of this article is to construct a monthly coincident indicator of
real economic activity in Croatia. For that purpose, we use a database
containing altogether 278 time series, ranging from January 1998 to
December 2010. In step one we use correlation analysis, logit and
Markov switching (MS) model in order to select time series that
closely follow the overall business cycle and its turning points. The
following four series have been detected as having the best coincident
properties: industrial production, volume of retail sales, VAT revenues
and total credit to households. In step two we apply dynamic factor
model methodology to the aforementioned coincident series in order
to estimate their common component, which is then used to construct
a monthly coincident indicator of real economic activity.

Ključne riječi
Business cycle; coincident indicator; dynamic factor model; Markov switching model; economic activity; macroeconomic forecasting

Hrčak ID: 171733

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/171733

Posjeta: 445 *