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ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES FOR THE CURRENCY PAIR CROATIAN KUNA / EURO

Marko Martinović orcid id orcid.org/0000-0003-1839-2471 ; University of Applied Sciences in Slavonski Brod, Slavonski Brod, Croatia
Željko Požega ; Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics in Osijek, Osijek, Croatia
Boris Crnković ; Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics in Osijek, Osijek, Croatia


Puni tekst: engleski PDF 421 Kb

str. 37-49

preuzimanja: 438

citiraj


Sažetak

The domestic currency Croatian kuna (HRK) was introduced in May 1995. To date, the Croatian National Bank (HNB), as a regulator and formulator of monetary policy in Croatia has operated a policy of stable exchange rate, typically referenced to the formal currency of the European Union euro (EUR). From the date of introduction of the euro 01/01/1999 until 01/01/2016 the value of the currency pair HRK / EUR changed in value by only 4.25% (HNB).
Although the value of the Croatian kuna is relatively stable, there are some fluctuations on an annual level (e.g. in ­­­the last few years because of the global crisis) as well as  on periodic levels within a year.
The aim of this paper is to show the movement of the value of the currency pair since the beginning of 2002 to the present day (the time curve), analyze the correctness, trends and periodicity (seasonal behavior), if any exist.

The research will be done using the method of Time Series Analysis, assuming that the external (global economy) and internal factors (economic policy) remain similar or the same. According to the results, further assessment of price developments in the period followed will be made by using the obtained predicative models. In the event that the curve contains the component of periodicity, the observed patterns will be studied further.

Ključne riječi

Croatian kuna, euro, time series analysis, HRK/EUR, prediction

Hrčak ID:

183606

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/183606

Posjeta: 883 *