Skoči na glavni sadržaj

Izvorni znanstveni članak

https://doi.org/10.13167/2021.22.4

APPLICATION OF PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS TO DROUGHT INDICATORS OF THREE REPRESENTATIVE CROATIAN REGIONS

Lidija Tadić orcid id orcid.org/0000-0003-4471-1157 ; Sveučilište Josipa Jurja Strossmayera u Osijeku, Građevinski i arhitektonski fakultet Osijek
Tamara Brleković orcid id orcid.org/0000-0001-5177-5824 ; Sveučilište Josipa Jurja Strossmayera u Osijeku, Građevinski i arhitektonski fakultet Osijek
Kristina Potočki orcid id orcid.org/0000-0002-2681-776X ; Građevinski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu
Maja Leko-Kos ; Institut IGH, Osijek


Puni tekst: engleski pdf 1.022 Kb

str. 41-55

preuzimanja: 423

citiraj


Sažetak

Drought has become a very frequent hydrological event globally, including in Croatia. It can generally be explained by air temperature and precipitation changes on an annual and seasonal basis, owing to climate change. To contribute to the knowledge on drought phenomena in Croatia, the changes in air temperature and precipitation over a relatively long period between 1951 and 2018 were analyzed. The meteorological stations included in the research were Osijek, Zagreb, and Split, which represented the climate of the entire country. Drought was estimated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, which is one of the most comprehensive drought indices. Furthermore, the drought severity and duration were calculated using run theory. These parameters were tested for homogeneity using the standard normal homogeneity test. Only the air temperature exhibited inhomogeneity, with a break year in 1991 (Zagreb and Split) and 1998 (Osijek). The existence of significant temporal trends was tested using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test. The probability of drought occurrence with a certain duration and severity was calculated using the copula function. Finally, principal component analysis was applied to the computed standardized Mann–Kendall test statistic (ZMK ) to define the relevance of each parameter change and their combination in drought occurrence on a seasonal basis. Drought occurrence was less recognizable from 1951 to 1991 (1998). In the second sub-period, the impact of an increasing air temperature was the most significant variable, particularly in Zagreb.

Ključne riječi

Drought; SNHT; PCA; copula function

Hrčak ID:

261279

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/261279

Datum izdavanja:

30.7.2021.

Posjeta: 1.066 *